台风路径数值预报模式的并行化及路径预报误差分析

国家气象中心台风路径数值预报模式经过串行优化及程序并行, 成功地实现了在国产超级计算机神威上的并行运算, 并可满足业务时效要求。基于并行程序及神威机计算平台的台风路径数值预报业务系统于2002年6月30日投入实时运行, 其初估场与侧边界条件从T106L19模式产品升级为T213L31模式产品 (称为基于T213台风预报系统, 原串行系统称为基于T106台风预报系统)。通过对2002年夏秋季台风路径的检验, 总体来看, 基于T213台风预报系统48 h内的平均路径预报误差小于基于T106台风预报系统的路径预报误差。对西行及西北行登陆的台风, 基于T106台风预报系统的48 h预报好于基于T213台风预报系统的预报。对于转向台风而言, 转向后的预报, 基于T213台风预报系统的预报要好于基于T106台风预报系统的预报, 有效地减小了基于T106台风预报系统对转向台风路径预报的系统性误差:即台风转向后预报路径较实况路径偏西。

Optimization and Parallel of Typhoon Track Prediction Model in NMC and Track Error Analyses

The Model for Typhoon Track Prediction (MTTP) on Cray92 in National Meteorological Center (NMC) was optimized and paralleled through data paralleling and message passing on Shenwei (SW) super computer made in China and the running time could meet the requirement of operational running. The new typhoon track prediction system was set up based on this model and SW computer was put into real time running on 30 June 2002. The initial condition and lateral boundary were updated from T106L19 to T213L31. The track results show that the track forecasts from the new system are better than that from the old system (the system on Cray92) on the whole. But the performance is different for different types of tracks: The results from the SW system are better for the northeast recurving typhoons and worse for the west and northwest moving typhoons.