| 我国东部夏季三类雨型的诊断和预测方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈寅生,施能.我国东部夏季三类雨型的诊断和预测方法研究[J].应用气象学报,1995,6(3):327-332. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈寅生 施能 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.南京气象学院，北京气象中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 《长期天气预报理论和方法研究》课题资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用三级逐步判别方法对我国东部地区夏季(6、7、8月)降水进行客观诊断和预测。结果表明，利用6个测站的夏季降水量即可定量诊断我国夏季雨型。利用冬季500hPa极涡面积和北半球遥相关型指数建立起来的三级判别函数只包含7个因子。历史拟合率为38/39，试报效果也较好，从而为我国东部地区夏季降水型的客观预报提供了有应用价值的预报模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 夏季雨型 逐步判别 极涡面积 遥相关型 |
A Study of the Diagnostic and Prognostic Method for Distributive Patterns of Summer Rainfall in Eastern China |
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| Chen Yinsheng,Shi Neng,Liu Haibo.A Study of the Diagnostic and Prognostic Method for Distributive Patterns of Summer Rainfall in Eastern China[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,1995,6(3):327-332. |
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| Authors: | Chen Yinsheng Shi Neng Liu Haibo |
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| Institution: | 1.(Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044) |
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| Abstract: | Three-group stepwise discriminant analysis has been employed to diagnose andforecast the distributive patterns of summer rainfall in eastern China. The results showthat the distributive patterns of summer rainfall in China could be diagnosed by usingthe summer rainfall for the six different stations. Based on the winter 500 hPa polarvortex area indices and teieconnection patterns intensity indices,three-groupdiscriminant functions are established,in which only 7 predictors are included. Thefitting frequency is 38/39 for the 39 years data.The test forecast result of 1991 iscorrect. It can serve as a valuable objective forecast model to the patterns of summerrainfall in eastern China. |
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| Keywords: | Summer rainfalll patterns Stepwise discriminant Polar vortex area Teleconnection patterns |
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