漓江最高水位的分析及预测

通过对漓江水位的分布特征分析得出:漓江水位不仅与降水量、降水强度、降水时空分布有关系,还与前期旱涝情况及蓄水程度有关;漓江水位的年际变化与桂林市雨量的年际变化一致,大致以10a为周期。然后采用双向差分建立了最高水位的预测模型,以预报量的前差和后差预报误差之和趋于最小时求出模型的参数,并对2002~2005年的最高水位进行了预报,结果表明该模型在最高水位预测中具有较好的应用价值。

The Analysis and Forecast for the Maximun-level of Lijiang River

This paper analyzes the distributed characteristic of the water level of Lijiang River and concludes:The water level of Lijiang River is not only related with the precipitation,intensity and the distribution of space and time,but also with the degree of water store and the drought and flood situation in earlier period.The annual change of water level of Lijiang River is consistent with that of the rainfall of Guilin,approximately takes 10a as a cycle.This article takes the bidirectional difference to establish the forecast model of the maximum water level in order to extract the parameter of the model when the sum of the predictand front difference and the latter difference tend to become the smallest.It also predicts the maximum water level of the years of 2002-2005.The result indicates that this model has the good application value for the maximum water level.