| 南宁市空气臭氧污染的TAR模型预报研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 何莉,冼玉卿.南宁市空气臭氧污染的TAR模型预报研究[J].气象研究与应用,2009,30(1):43-46. |
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| 作者姓名： | 何莉 冼玉卿 |
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| 作者单位： | 南宁市环境保护监测站,广西,南宁,530012 |
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| 摘 要： | 以门限自回归统计方法为基础进行南宁城市臭氧日最大小时浓度TAR模型预报研究.选取日平均气压作为参与预报气象因子、180日作为建模资料长度、开方形式的数据转换后建立模型预报效果更佳.预报结果检验表明预报方案是可行的,并提出了改进建议.
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| 关 键 词： | 门限自回归 臭氧 预报 |
Study on TAR Model in Ozone Prediction of Nanning City |
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| He Li,Xian Yu-qing.Study on TAR Model in Ozone Prediction of Nanning City[J].Journal of Guangxi Meteorology,2009,30(1):43-46. |
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| Authors: | He Li Xian Yu-qing |
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| Institution: | Nanning Environmental Protection Monitoring Station;Nanning;Guangxi;530012 |
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| Abstract: | Threshold auto-regressive(TAR) statistical method was selected to conduct O3 concentrations forecast in Nanning.Comparisons of the predicting and monitoring shows that using daily pressure as participant meteorological element,180-day as sample length,and evolution as alternation of data,TAR mode can make the better forecasts.Some improved suggestions are also given. |
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| Keywords: | threshold auto-regressive ozone forecast |
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