桂林暴雨分析与预报

通过分析历年汛期各类暴雨过程的日本数值预报产品资料,统计出桂林历年暴雨过程的天气形势和数值产品要素特征,并检验了日本短期预报产品对各类暴雨的预报能力。然后通过对预报桂林暴雨的各种日本数值产品临界值的分析,挑选出一些相关性较好的要素产品预报因子,统计出桂林局部暴雨过程和致洪暴雨过程预报指标,最后对大暴雨过程预报指标及连续性暴雨过程的数值产品特征作了初步分析。

Analysis and Forecast of Rainstorm in Guilin

The study on the Japanese numerical forecast product information on various kinds of rainstorm processes occurred in flood season of the past years concluded the weather situation of rainstorm processes in Guilin in the past years and the features of numerical forecast product elements. Capability of the Japanese numerical forecast product in forecasting various rainstorms is also analyzed. Study is made on the critical value of all kinds of Japanese numerical products in forecasting rainstorm in Guilin to select some element product forecast factors with better correlation, based on which the forecast indices of local rainstorm process and flood formation process in Guilin are found out. At last, a preliminary study is made on forecast indices for heavy rainstorm process and numerical product features of continuous rainstorm process.