灾害天气的识别和自动预警

使用CINRAD/SB新一代天气雷达基本数据资料,设计了一套简单的强降水、强对流天气的自动预警系统。以反射率强度和直径监测和预报暴雨系统,用垂直液态水含量监测和预报大风和冰雹系统,当系统监测到这几类灾害天气时,发出声音报警,提示预报员跟踪预报。从对2005年几次暴雨、大风、冰雹过程进行回报和对2006年灾害天气过程进行预报应用来看,利用多普勒雷达资料,可以对灾害性天气过程进行有效地识别和预警。反射率大于30dbz的直径在20km以上时,有利于出现强降水过程;垂直液态水含量大于18kgm-2,直径在10km以上,有利于18m.s-1以上大风出现;垂直液态水含量大于38kgm-2,直径在10km以上,有利于冰雹出现。

Identification and auto forecast and warning on Hazard Event

Based on the primary data of the new generation weather radar(the CINRAD/SB radar),a simple automatic alert system to identify the strong rainfall area and strong convective weather is designed.According to the base reflectivity and the diameter,strong rain is monitored and predicted.The vertical integration of liquid water content(VIL) is applied to monitor and predict the strong wind and the hail.Sound alert will give the forecasters a signal to make following predict such disaster weather.The forecasting results from 2005 to 2006 indicate that this method is efficient.When the echo intensity being up to 30 dBz and diameter being above 20km,is available to the strong rain.When the diameter above 10km with VIL being 18kg/m2 is high possibility of strong wind and there is good correlation between the area of hail and VIL being up to 38kg/m2.