JFSAS静止锋预报产品在中国强降水落区上的释用

利用2005～2011年5月保存的部分日本数值预报传真图资料,分析JFSAS图中静止锋的活动规律、及与之对应的12h前后08时天气图中大雨、暴雨、大暴雨区域存在的关系,辅助分析对应时段的预报降水图,得出以下主要结论:①静止锋对强降水预报有较好的指示意义;②静止锋锋区、暖区、冷区、延长线上均有强降水发生,且强降水对应静止锋的位置不是唯一的;③利用静止锋预报,既能判别降水预报图中强降水落区的可用性,又能对降水强度进行一定程度的修正;④当长时间持续预报静止锋活动时,往往与黄淮、江淮、江南、华南等地持续性暴雨过程相关联。

Explanation and Application of JFSAS Stationary Front Forecast Products about Heavy Precipitation Fall Area in China

Basing the Japanese numerical weather prediction fax maps on May from 2005-2011, the activity law of stationary front on the JFSAS maps and its relationship with precipitations of next 12 hours were analyzed. The results show： （1） Stationary front has a good forecast sense to heavy rainfall. （2）The heavy rainfall can likely occur in frontal zone, warm zone, cold zone, the extension line of stationary front. （3）Considering stationary front can not only identify the availability of forecast map precipitation area, but also correct precipitation intensity in a certain degree. （4）The prolonged stationary front activity showed in the map often associates with persistent heavy rain in Huang-Huai, Jianghuai , South of the Yangtze River, Southern China and other places.