肇庆市降水与地质环境耦合的地质灾害预警方法

对1991~2003年肇庆市发生的21例地质灾害的资料进行分析,运用降水与地质环境耦合的预警方法,得出相对固定的全市地质灾害易发程度分区图,并确定各易发区诱发灾害的气象预警指标及判别值,根据逐日的降水预报按二维综合判别模型计算输出地质灾害预警等级结果。在2006年4~9月期间进行预测检验,准确率达83%,证明它是实用而有效的。

Geological Disaster Forecasting Method of Coupling Relation between Geological Environment and Rainfall in Zhaoqing City

With the method of coupling relation between geological environment and rainfall,21 cases of geological disaster in Zhaoqing from 1991 to 2003 were analyzed.The result shows that(1) The comparative fixed areas which is prone to weather-induced geological disasters were educed,and the meteorological forecast indexes were concluded.(2)Basing on day-to-day precipitation forecast,using the two-dimensional integrated model,the geological disaster forecast are made,which has been tested between Apr.and Set.in 2006,with the accuracy of 83%.very practical and effective.