数值天气预报模式产品在预报业务中的应用

介绍了数值预报模式产品性能的基本特征,讨论了模式产品误差的地理、季节和层次分布、不同尺度模式产品的可预报性、模式输出要素及物理量、指数的误差特点,并根据目前业务中常见的错误预报思路探讨了应用数值预报模式产品的合理思路,指出现代预报业务中预报员的作用。认为现代预报员应该了解几种基本的数值预报模式的特性及基本原理,集合各种模式的优点,综合本地预报经验,有效利用海量数值预报产品,做出更高质量的预报结果。

Applications of Numerical Weather Prediction Model in Forecast Practices

This paper gives a brief review on the performance of NWP （Numerical Weather Prediction） Models, focusing on the distribution （vertical, geographical, and seasonal） of model errors, predictability of NWP models on different scales, and the features of forecast errors for specific model outputs. By noting on the improper use of NWP models in practices, the author discusses a reasonable way, in which the role of the forecasters is highlighted. That is to firstly understand the character- istics and the governing mechanisms of the operational models, and then make full use of their advantages, together with local forecast experiences to produce better forecast.