| 因子组合方法在新会持续高温预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 简健和,赵佩红.因子组合方法在新会持续高温预报中的应用[J].广东气象,2005(2):10-11. |
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| 作者姓名： | 简健和 赵佩红 |
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| 作者单位： | 江门市新会区气象局,广东新会,529100 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用新会1957—2003年气温和降雨量资料，应用因子组合方法寻找影响新会6-9月长时间持续高温天气出现的因子。结果显示，能够准确地预报夏天是否出现持续高温天气≥6d，从而有效地提高长期天气、特别是小概率事件的预测能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 因子组合 高温 小概率事件 长期预测 新会 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-6190(2005)02-0010-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年12月8日 |
Application of Factor Combination Analysis to the Forecast of Durative High Temperature in Xinhui |
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| Jian Jian-he,Zhao Pei-hong.Application of Factor Combination Analysis to the Forecast of Durative High Temperature in Xinhui[J].Journal of Guangdong Meteorology,2005(2):10-11. |
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| Authors: | Jian Jian-he Zhao Pei-hong |
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| Abstract: | Based on temperature and rainfall data in Xinhui from 1957 to 2003,the factors which affect durative high temperature weather from June to September are retrieved with the method of factor combination analysis. The results show that durative high temperature weather can be predicted precisely by using the method. Accordingly,the veracity of the long-range forecast,especially for low probability event,is improved. |
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| Keywords: | factor combination high temperature low probability event long-range forecast Xinhui |
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