利用专家评估法作未来10年（2000～2010年）广州市气象灾害影响趋势展望

将气象灾害（主要是风灾、涝灾和旱灾）对广州市的影响程度分成轻微、偏轻、中等、偏重和严重五个级别，在时间上将未来10年分成三个时期：近期（2000～2002年）、中期（2003～2006年）、远期（2007～2010年），通过对广州市57名长期从事灾害研究的专家的调查，再运用专家评估法，结果表明：在三种灾害中，对广州市影响最大的是风灾，未来10年几乎每年都有热带气旋影响广州，造成较大程度的损失，其损失程度约比中等年份偏多10～15%;涝灾对广州市的影响在近期比台风小，中期与台风的影响接近，至远期的影响超过台风，整个预测期内比中等年份偏多10%左右。对广州市影响最小的是旱灾（特别在近期和远期），比中等年份偏少5%左右。

Forecasting the Trend of Meteorological Disaster Influence on GuangZhou in the Coming 10 Years(2000～2010)by Expert Assessment Method

Meteorological disaster (mainly wind damagae,waterlog disaster and drought damage) was classified by five categories as slight,not serious,medium,relatively serious and serious by the degree of its influence on Guangzhou,and divided into 3 ranges in time: short-term(2000～2002),medium-term(2003～2006) ,and long-term (2007～2010).Through the investigation by 57 experts who had been engaged in disatser research for a long time ,with application expert of assessment method (Delphi method) the results showed that wind damage would have the greatest influence on Guangzhou among the meteorological disasters.In the coming 10 years,there would be tropical cyclone influence on Guangzhou almost every year,which would bring a certain extent of damage that was 10～15% more serious than that in normal year.Waterlog disaster brings less influence compared them with tropical cyclone in short term,but its influence was close to that of tropical cyclone in mid-term and even surpasses that of tropical cyclone in long-term.Waterlog damage in forcasting period will be about 10% more serious than that in normal year. Drought damage will bring the slightest influence among meteorological disasters (especially in short and long term),and its influence is about 5% slighter than that in normal year.