自忆性建模及其气候应用

对制约系统运动的含时间微商项的方程,引进记忆函数后可导得一个差分—积分方程,它能包容含初值的多个往值。构建和求解系统的差分—积分方程的原理,称为自忆性原理,相应导得的数学模型称为自忆性模型。自忆性模型现已应用到气象、海洋、水文、市场、农业、交通和能源等多个领域的建模、计算和预报,尤其在预报方面取得了显著成果,提高了预报准确率。文中还论述了自忆性—界门模型,讨论了自忆性模型应用效果好的原因,给出了气候预测的实例。

Self-memorization Modeling and Its Application to Climate

Setting a memory function for a governing equation of a system with a time derivation,a difference-integral equation,covering multi-initial values,can be deducted.The principle of setting up and solving the difference-integral equation is called as a self-memorization principle.The model based on the principle is different from other time series models,which are based on a random difference equation.The self-memorization model has been applied to meteorology,oceanography,hydrology,marketing,agriculture,transportation and energy and so on for modeling,computing and forecasting.In particular,it is successful for forecast issue pertinent to advancing the forecast accuracy.Besides,the self-memory-gate model is briefed,and the reason why the self-memorization model can improve the forecast is discussed as well.As a example,a climate prediction is presented.