基于风暴数值模拟的冰雹临近预报方法研究

该文利用基于格点冰雹识别的研究成果,结合ARPS风暴数值模式的输出结果,提出基于风暴数值模式的冰雹临近预报方法,即用风暴数值预报的水物质场反演的反射率因子场作为冰雹的预报因子,并通过建立基于格点的强冰雹识别算法作为冰雹预报模型,从而对冰雹的落区及大小做出预报。与一般的冰雹预报模型相比,新的方法有以下特点：选取的冰雹预报因子物理意义更加明确,更加全面;建立的冰雹预报模型比较稳定;建立冰雹预报模型的过程相对简单。新的方法在一次强冰雹过程中得到了成功应用,在3h的临近预报中基本准确预报了强冰雹的落区位置。

Research on the approach of hail nowcasting in Guizhou Region based on storm numerical model

Based on grid-based hail detection algorithm,storm numerical model and radar data assimilation,A nowcasting technique for hail storm,which using model radar reflectivity retrieving from hydrometeors as the hail forecasting factors and grid-based hail detection algorithm as the hail forecasting model,has been established,It can be used to forecasting the hail location and size.Comparing with other hail forecasting approaches,this new approach get more meaningful and more comprehensive forecasting factors,a more stable forecasting model and easy way to build the hail forecasting model.The new approach was successfully applied in a severe hail weather case,which forecasted accurately the position of severe hail storms during 3 hours from initial time.