基于HYSPLIT模式的泸州特大暴雨水汽输送特征分析

本文利用再分析资料、GDAS等资料，引入HYSPLIT模式定性定量地分析泸州9月7～8日特大暴雨过程的水汽输送特征，并对水汽来源进行了模拟。结果表明:(1)该过程是由高空低槽、低涡切变以及低空急流共同影响导致的，强降水发生区域与850hPa低涡位置具有很好的对应关系。(2)影响此次强降水的水汽主要来源于南海、孟加拉湾和贵州、湖南等周边省份，其中周边省份的本地水汽贡献最大，850hPa(1500m)上水汽贡献率达44%，孟加拉湾和南海两者的水汽贡献率也达到了39%。(3)三维空间显示水汽主要来源于850hPa高度附近或以下区域。 

Analyse of the Characteristics of Moisture Transport in Luzhou Extraordinary Rainstorm Based on HYSPLIT Model

Using reanalysis data,GDAS and other data,this paper introduces the HYSPLIT model to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the water vapor transport characteristics of the heavy rain on September 7th to 8th,and simulate the source of water vapor. The results show that: (1) This process is caused by the combined effects of high-altitude low-groove,low-vortex shear,and low-altitude jet,and the strong precipitation occurrence area has a good correspondence with the 850hPa low-vortex location. (2) The water vapor affecting the heavy rainfall mainly comes from the South China Sea,the Bay of Bengal,and the surrounding provinces such as Guizhou and Hunan. Among them,the local water vapor contribution from the surrounding provinces is the largest. The water vapor contribution rate also reached 39%. (3) Three-dimensional space shows that water vapor mainly comes from areas near or below 850hPa height.