新旧气候平均值的差异及其对西南气候业务的影响

选取西南地区短期气候预测业务选定的81个气象站,将其1971~2000年30年气候平均值与1981~2010年30年气候平均值进行比较,结果发现,就西南大部分地区而言,前者所表征的气候较后者更冷湿。把两个平均值放在长序列中分析,发现冬季平均气温和汛期降水量平均值的变化幅度较大,这些变化已经对气候影响评价、气候预测业务产生影响。

Difference of Two 30 Years Averages and Its Influence on Operational Climatic Analysis

A comparison was made between the two climatic averages of meteorological elements from the old period of 1971 - 2000 to a new period 1981 -2010 of 81 meteorological stations used in Southwestern China climate prediction. The results show the climate in new period is wetter and wormer than that in the old period in most areas, and some elements are especially obvious. The anomaly of an element such as the temperature, precipitation, SST and geopotential height, will be changed because of the different climate state in the two period of 1970s and 2000s. The winter temperature anomaly will be decrease and the summer rainfall anomaly will be increase. The difference of the two averages has certain impacts on the operation of climatic analysis and climatic prediction.