| 基于EC025配料的短时强降水概率预报产品及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈永仁,康岚,李跃清.基于EC025配料的短时强降水概率预报产品及应用[J].高原山地气象研究,2017,37(4):1-7. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈永仁 康岚 李跃清 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所, 成都 610072; |
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| 基金项目： | 全国强对流预报专家团队建设项目四川省气象台业务研发课题(QXTL201406A)高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室课题(2017-重点-01,2017-青年-03)国家自然科学基金项目(41275051) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用ECMWF预报资料，从动力、热力、水汽、能量和降水预报5个方面选取影响短时强降水发生的因子，构建多因变量数组，并利用主成分分析确定配料系数及其阈值，在此基础上进行配料，研发了四川省短时强降水概率预报产品投入应用。结果表明:产品对盆地20mm/h以上和高原地区10mm/h以上的短时强降水落区预报效果显著。
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| 关 键 词： | 短时强降水 主成分分析 概率预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-10-23 |
The Product and Application of Short-time Strong Precipitation Probability Forecast Based on the Ingredient of EC025 Model Data |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA, Chengdu 610072, China;2. Sichuan Provincial Meteorological observatory, Chengdu 610072, China;3. Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | By using ECMWF high-resolution forecast data, the factors that affect the occurrence of short-time strong precipitation (SSP) are selected from five aspects of dynamics, thermodynamics, water vapor, unstable energy and precipitation forecast, the array of multi-dependent variable was constructed, and the ingredient coefficient and its threshold value of the forecasting factor were determined by principal component analysis (PCA). On the basis of this, the probability forecast product of SSP in Sichuan was developed. Since 2015, the forecasting application product has showed that the product has a significant impact on the SSP’s area of≥20 mm/h in the basin and above 10mm/h in the plateau of Western Sichuan. |
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