| 基于ECMWF极端降水天气指数的四川盆地暴雨预报研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 龙柯吉,陈朝平,郭旭,等.基于ECMWF极端降水天气指数的四川盆地暴雨预报研究[J].高原山地气象研究,2016,36(2):30-35. |
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| 作者姓名： | 龙柯吉 陈朝平 郭旭 等 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 四川省气象台, 成都 610072; |
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| 基金项目： | 气象关键技术集成与应用面上项目(CMAGJ2014M48)，国家自然科学基金(41405036)，四川省教育厅重点项目(ZHYJ15-ZD01)，四川省教育厅一般项目(15ZB0181)，成都信息工程学院科研基金(KYTZ201413，CRF201401) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用EC集合预报提供的极端降水天气指数能指示极端天气事件的特点,研究了四川盆地夏季(6-9月)的暴雨落区预报。综合考虑不同极端降水天气指数阈值对应的暴雨TS、ETS评分及各阈值评分最高时的发生频次,获得暴雨预报对应的最佳极端降水天气指数阈值。结果显示,08时起报的24h、48h、72h、96h、120h时效对应的阈值分别为0.5\0.6、0.5、0.4\0.5、0.4、0.2\0.3,20时起报的24h、48h、72h、96h、120h时效对应的阈值分别为0.5、0.4\0.5、0.4\0.5、0.3\0.4、0.1\0.3,通过检验表明这些阈值对暴雨落区的预报具有较好的指示意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 极端天气指数 集合预报 暴雨 四川盆地 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-03-23 |
Research of Heavy Rain Prediction Based on ECMWF-EFI in Sichuan Basin |
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| Institution: | 1. Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China;2. Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China;3. Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Observation and Data Centre, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | The precipitation Extreme Forecast Index(EFI) from ECMWF global ensemble prediction system can indicate extreme weather events,and this paper researches the heavy rain prediction in Sichuan Basin during summer(June-September) by using this characteristic. Comprehensively considering heavy rain TS,ETS scores corresponding to different EFI threshold and the occurrence frequency of top score threshold,we get the best EFI threshold of heavy rain prediction,the result shows that the thresholds of aging of 24h,48h,72h,96h,120h which are predicted from 8: 00am(UTC+8) are 0.5\0.6,0.5,0.4\0.5,0.4,0.2\0.3,and the thresholds of aging of 24 h,48h,72 h,96h,120hwhich are predicted from 8: 00pm(UTC+8) are 0.5,0.4\0.5,0.4\0.5,0.3\0.4,0.1\0.3,and the examination shows these thresholds have good indicative significance to heavy rain prediction. |
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