四川公路地质灾害特征及气象危险性评价

利用四川省2007～2013年的公路地质灾害资料和30年气候整编的雨量资料对四川公路地质灾害的基本特征进行了分析，建立了四川公路地质灾害危险性评价的指标体系。主要结论:影响四川省公路安全的主要地质灾害有泥石流、崩塌、滑坡和洪水，近7年来，四川公路因降雨引发地质灾害的断道、封路等灾害次数呈逐年上升趋势。公路地质灾害发生数量与四川逐月降雨量有很好的对应关系，7月发生最多，8月次之，说明降雨量的季节变化决定了公路地质灾害的季节变化。灾害主要发生在09～10时和15时左右。选取年平均灾害次数，5～10月降雨量，日最大降雨量，5～10月暴雨日数，年降雨量这五个因子，采用主成分分析法，开展了公路地质灾害气象危险性评价。 

Basic Characteristics and Meteorological Risk Assessment of Highway Geological Hazard in Sichuan Province

In this paper，utilize highway geological hazard data of 2007～2013 and 30 years of reorganization Rainfall data， analyze the basic characteristics of highway geological hazards in Sichuan， establish the index system of risk assessment of geological hazards in Sichuan highways.The main conclusion:The main geological hazards are debris flow，collapse，landslide and flood which effect the safe of highway in Sichuan Province， in recent 7 years， the number of Sichuan highway geological hazards is rising year by year which triggered by rainfall.There is a good corresponding relationship between the monthly distribution of Sichuan highway geological hazards and monthly rainfall， most occurred in July， August second， the seasonal variation of rainfall determines the seasonal variation of highway geological hazards.The hazard occurred mainly at 9 a.m.to 10a.m and 15 p.m.Selecting the annual average number of disaster of 49 highway， monthly rainfall from May to October， the maximum daily rainfall， rainstorm day number from May to October， annual rainfall， then using Principal Component Analysis（PCA） to grade the risk of highway geological disaster， risk assessment level can provide reference to the highway in the risk zoning of geological hazards.