| 多模式对四川一次强降水过程不确定性预报分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 何光碧,屠妮妮,张利红.多模式对四川一次强降水过程不确定性预报分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2009,29(4):18-26. |
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| 作者姓名： | 何光碧 屠妮妮 张利红 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所, 成都 610071 |
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| 基金项目： | ％％，中国气象局基本业务建设项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文就2008年“5.12”四川大地震后,5月25~26日四川盆地出现的一次强降水过程,比较分析成都区域中心运行的3个区域(GRAPES、AREM和MM5)模式降水预报情况以及各模式预报的物理量场和大气状况的演变,得到:模式就不同起报时间,对同一时间段的降水预报效果是不一样的,初始场获取的大气信息对预报有着重要作用;模式预报的降水落区与物理量的垂直时间演变密切相关;各模式大气初始场差异及随时间演变决定了各模式降水预报差异。
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| 关 键 词： | 数值模式 降水过程 预报分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009-10-26 |
Analysis on the Uncertain Prediction of a Strong Precipitation Process over Sichuan based on Multi-models |
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| HE Guangbi,TU Nini,ZHANG Lihong.Analysis on the Uncertain Prediction of a Strong Precipitation Process over Sichuan based on Multi-models[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,2009,29(4):18-26. |
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| Authors: | HE Guangbi TU Nini ZHANG Lihong |
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| Institution: | Cheng Du Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Cheng Du 610072 |
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| Abstract: | A strong precipitation process happened from 25 to 26 May, 2008 after the "5.12" great earthquake has been analysed on its evolution of precipitations, physical fields and atmospheric conditions through the three regional models running in ChengDu region meterological center.The results show that precipitation predictions effect are different in the same time for the same model at different integral beginning time.Atmospheric information obtained from initial fields has an important impact on prediction.There is a close relation between simulated precipitation area and the vertical time evolution of physical fields.The difference of initial fields and its evolution with time decides the difference of precipitation prediction for various models. |
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