| 基于海温异常的南海夏季风爆发的可预报性分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 邵勰,黄平,黄荣辉.基于海温异常的南海夏季风爆发的可预报性分析[J].气象科学,2015,35(6):684-690. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 邵勰 黄平 黄荣辉 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国科学院大气物理研究所, 北京 100029;中国科学院大学, 北京 100049,中国科学院大气物理研究所, 北京 100029,中国科学院大气物理研究所, 北京 100029 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项项目(XDA11010401);国家重大科学研究计划项目(2014CB953904) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 定义了综合评估南海地区大气对海温异常等外强迫响应的指数,并以此作为中间变量提出了利用前期海温异常预报南海夏季风爆发早晚的方法,进一步分析了基于海温异常的南海夏季风爆发的可预报性。分析表明:基于前期海温的异常,对于以日为单位预报对象的定量的南海夏季风爆发日期来说,基本没有可预报性;而对于定性的南海夏季风爆发早晚的预测,则可预报性大为提高。其预报时效可以提前至前期秋季的11月份。
|
| 关 键 词： | 海温异常 南海夏季风爆发 可预报性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014/5/22 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014/8/26 0:00:00 |
Predictability analysis on onset of South China Sea summer monsoon based on the sea surface temperature anomaly |
| |
| SHAO Xie,HUANG Ping and HUANG Ronghui.Predictability analysis on onset of South China Sea summer monsoon based on the sea surface temperature anomaly[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2015,35(6):684-690. |
| |
| Authors: | SHAO Xie HUANG Ping and HUANG Ronghui |
| |
| Institution: | Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China,Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China and Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China |
| |
| Abstract: | The indice that comprehensively evaluate the response of the atmosphere over the South China Sea to the external forcing like Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly(SSTA) are defined in this paper firstly. Then the defined indice are worked as the intermediate variables to forecast the onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon (SCSSM) by using the preceding SSTA. Lastly, the predictability of the onset of SCSSM is analyzed. Results show that there is no predictability on the quantificational daily SCSSM onset forecast, while on the basis of the qualitative forecast, the predictability is improved to the preceding November. |
| |
| Keywords: | Sea surface temperature anomaly South China Sea summer monsoon onset Predictability |
|
| 点击此处可从《气象科学》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气象科学》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
