西南地区雨季降水的时空分布及预报试验

利用西南三省一市1980—2017年逐日降水资料,采用主成分及旋转主成分分析,对西南雨季降水的空间异常特征进行了研究,并在分区的基础上,探讨了各区降水的时间演变特征,最后运用均生函数建立预测模型,进行预报试验。结果表明:西南地区雨季降水空间差异大,具体可分为6区;各区雨季降水量的时间演变均具有显著年际、年代际变化特征,且近年来西南大部分地区雨季降水量减少、降水异常偏少年出现的频次增多;预报模型对于雨季降水的拟合和预测效果均较好。

Temporal and spatial distribution and prediction experiment of precipitation in Southwest China during the rainy season

Based on the daily precipitation data in four provinces or cities in Southwest China from 1980 to 2017, the spatial anomaly characteristics of precipitation in Southwest China during the rainy season were analyzed using the methods of principal component analysis and rotated principal component analysis. By the regional division, the characteristics of temporal evolution of precipitation in different regions were discussed. Finally, the prediction model was established using the mean generating function, and the prediction experiment was carried out. The results show that the precipitation in Southwest China during the rainy season has a large spatial difference and can be divided into six regions. There are significant inter-annual and inter-decadal characteristics in each region.The precipitation in most regions in southwest is reduced in recent years, and the year with abnormally less precipitation appears more frequently, and the prediction model will achieve good results for both the fitting and prediction of precipitation in the rainy season.