| 西北太平洋晚季台风频数突然减少的成因分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张宇昕,沈阳,马旭林.西北太平洋晚季台风频数突然减少的成因分析[J].气象科学,2021,41(4):463-470. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张宇昕 沈阳 马旭林 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学 气象灾害教育部重点实验室, 南京 210044;江苏省气象台, 南京 210019 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目（41775058；41730961）；江苏省自然科学基金青年基金资助项目（BK20180811） |
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| 摘 要： | 西北太平洋地区晚季(10—12月)66%的热带气旋可以发展成为台风,其比率高于盛夏季节。基于贝叶斯突变分析的研究结果表明,西北太平洋晚季台风频数在1998年前后发生了年代际转折,即相对于1979—1997年,台风频数在1998—2016年显著减少。台风生成的空间分布情况表明,西北太平洋台风频数总体呈减少状态,减少最多的区域出现在东南部(0°～17.5°N,135°～180°E)。相应的,台风生成潜在指数(Genesis Potential Index, GPI)在该区域也明显减小。通过对比分析涡度、垂直切变、相对湿度和最大潜在强度四个主要因子对GPI变化的相对贡献大小,结果表明动力因子(垂直切变和涡度)对西北太平洋台风生成频数的年代际变化起关键作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 晚季台风频数 年代际变化 台风生成潜在指数 大尺度环境因子 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020/1/10 0:00:00 |
Evolution characteristics of late-season typhoon frequency in the western North Pacific |
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| ZHANG Yuxin,SHEN Yang,MA Xulin.Evolution characteristics of late-season typhoon frequency in the western North Pacific[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2021,41(4):463-470. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yuxin SHEN Yang MA Xulin |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education(KLME), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China;Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing 210019, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the Bayesian mutation analysis, it is found that the frequency of late-season (October-November) typhoon declines strikingly during 1998-2016 compared with 1979-1997. This trend is found in most parts of Western North Pacific (WNP), and is most significant in the southeastern sub-region of the WNP (0°-17.5°N,135°-180°E). The Genesis Potential Index (GPI) also exhibits salient decrease in this region. The contributions of the four environmental parameters (absolute vorticity, vertical wind shear, relative humidity and maximum potential intensity) to GPI were assessed separately. Results indicate that the decreaing of late-season typhoon frequency during 1998-2016 is mainly driven by the change of dynamical factors (absolute vorticity and vertical wind shear). |
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| Keywords: | late-season typhoon frequency interdecadal variation genesis potential index large-scale environmental factors |
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