| 热带气旋路径动力释用预报的集合预报方案 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱永,程戴晖.热带气旋路径动力释用预报的集合预报方案[J].气象科学,2000,21(3):229-238. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱永 程戴晖 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海台风研究所,上海,200030 |
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| 摘 要： | 考虑到热带气旋中心定位的不确定以及热带气旋（以下简称ＴＣ）路径动力释用预报对ＴＣ中心位置初值的敏感性，本文以ＴＣ路径动力释用预报方案为基础，应用集合预报原理构造了具有５０个成员的集合预报试验方案，经１９９７和１９９８年１５个ＴＣ的１１８次试验对比，结果表明，５０个成员的集合预报方案２的改进效果较好，其平均距离误差较业务预报的平均距离误差有较显著的减小。集合预报原理应用于ＴＣ路径动力释用预报的可行性
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| 关 键 词： | 集合预报 动力释用 热带气旋 路径预报 |
AN ENSEMBLE FORECASTING SCHEME OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK BASED ON DYNAMIC INTERPRETATION METHOD |
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| Zhu Yongti,Chen Daihui.AN ENSEMBLE FORECASTING SCHEME OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK BASED ON DYNAMIC INTERPRETATION METHOD[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2000,21(3):229-238. |
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| Authors: | Zhu Yongti Chen Daihui |
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| Abstract: | In this paper the influence of positioning error of TC center on the prediction of TC track was discussed and some ensemble schemes based on dynamic interpretation method for TC track forecast was designed and experimented for TC samples in 1997 and 1998 typhoon season.The results indicate the forecasting mean error can be reducde by using the ensemble forecast scheme 2 and it is suitable for operational use. |
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| Keywords: | Tropical cyclone Dynamic interpretation Ensemble forecast |
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