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| 长江流域极端强降水分布特征的统计拟合 | |
| 引用本文： | 苏布达,姜彤,董文杰.长江流域极端强降水分布特征的统计拟合[J].气象科学,2008,28(6):625-629. |
| 作者姓名： | 苏布达 姜彤 董文杰 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国气象局气候变化中心,北京,100081 2. 中国气象局气候变化中心,北京100081;中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,南京210008 3. 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京,100875 |
| 基金项目： | 气候研究开放实验室基金(LCS-2006-07).国家自然科学基金 ， 中国博士后科学基金和巾国科学院院长奖励基金 |
| 摘 要： | 基于长江流域147个气象站1960-2005年最大值降水序列(AM)与超门限峰值降水序列(POT),选取4大类20种分布函数,采用极大似然法和线性矩法估算了参数,经柯尔莫洛夫-斯米尔诺夫检验,确定了降水极值的最优概率模型.对AM与POT两套极端强降水序列的频率分析均表明,Wakeby分布函数能够较好的拟合长江流域降水极值的概率分布.同时指出了降水极值的拟合存在的不确定性. |
| 关 键 词： | 分布函数 极端降水 长江流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 1/5/2007 12:00:00 AM |
Probabilistic characteristics of precipitation extremes over the Yangtze River Basin |
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| Su Bud,Jiang Tong and Dong Wenjie.Probabilistic characteristics of precipitation extremes over the Yangtze River Basin[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2008,28(6):625-629. | |
| Authors: | Su Bud Jiang Tong and Dong Wenjie |
| Institution: | Su Buda1 Jiang Tong1,2 Dong Wenjie3(1 Centre on Climate Change,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081)(2 Nanjing Institute of Geography , Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008)(3 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Process , Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875) |
| Abstract: | 20 distribution functions which come from 4 categories for the AM and POT extreme precipitation series at 147 stations over the Yangtze River Basin,have been applied to obtain the robust probability model which fits for each station by KS goodness of fit test.Research results show that Wakeby distribution can simulate the probability distribution of precipitation extremes calculated both from AM and POT series quite well.But there are still some uncertainties for the estimated design value of extreme precip... |
| Keywords: | Distribution function Extreme precipitation Yangtze River Basin |
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