| 应用K指数和TOT指数作江苏中期降水预报的试验 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋海鸥,王永红,等.应用K指数和TOT指数作江苏中期降水预报的试验[J].气象科学,2002,22(2):242-246. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋海鸥 王永红 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏省淮安市气象局,淮安,223001 |
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| 摘 要： | 用国家气象中心的T63和T106中期数值预报产品，计算所划定区域的K指数和TOT指数作为预报因子，并统计与江苏省9个代表站降水的相关。用逐步回归方法建立了江苏省4－7月第4－6天的PP降水预报方程36个、MOS降水预报方程108个，多级判别临界值144组。在此基础上经统计制作江苏省降水概率预报。
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| 关 键 词： | T106数值产品 概率预报 统计分析 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000年9月30日 |
AN EXPERIMENT ON FORECASTING METAPHASE PRECIPITATION USING K-EXPONENT AND TOT-EXPONENT |
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| Song Haiou,Wang Yonghong,Gu Shanqi,Liu Juxiang.AN EXPERIMENT ON FORECASTING METAPHASE PRECIPITATION USING K-EXPONENT AND TOT-EXPONENT[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2002,22(2):242-246. |
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| Authors: | Song Haiou Wang Yonghong Gu Shanqi Liu Juxiang |
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| Abstract: | By using T106 and T63 metaphase numerical forecasting products,K-exponent and TOT-exponent in defined area were calculated as forecast predictors,and the correlation with the nine representative stations was counted.With stagewise regression procedure,the 36 PP-precipitation forecasting equations?the 108 MOS-precipitation forecasting equations and the 144 multi-level distinguishing critical values were established.Based on these,the probability forecast of Jiangsu Province precipitation is made. |
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| Keywords: | T106numerical prediction products Probability forecast Statistical analysis |
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