区域暴雨强度等级综合评估研究—以长江中下游为例

考虑到暴雨可能造成灾害的累积效应,本文提出降雨衰减指数的概念,建立相当强度公式,并以此判定暴雨日。从致灾因子出发,以暴雨过程的过程强度和影响范围作为评价指标,建立区域暴雨过程致灾强度的综合评估模型。以长江中下游地区为例,基于上述评估模型,得到该地区暴雨过程序列,继而利用百分位法对暴雨序列进行等级划分,得到该区域暴雨过程的暴雨强度等级。并将上述结果与历史灾情记录对比,结果显示两者在时间和影响范围上吻合较好。

Research on comprehensive intensity evaluation of regional rainstorm process-along the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River

Considering the cumulative effect that heavy rainfall may cause, the concept of rainfall attenuation index was put forward and the relative intensity formula for the rainstorm process was established, so as to judge if it is a storm day. Starting from the disaster factors, the intensity of storm process and the influence region were taken as the evaluation index, and the comprehensive evaluation model of regional rainstorm process was established. Taking the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River as an example, based on the above evaluation model, the rainstorm process sequence was obtained, and then the rainstorm intensity grade in this region was evaluated by percentile method. The results were compared with the historical rainstorm process, which demonstrate that the assessment model is consistent with historical disaster records.