| 我国淮河流域夏季降水长期预报的回归模型的初步研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈辉,张永强.我国淮河流域夏季降水长期预报的回归模型的初步研究[J].气象科学,2000,20(1):37-43. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈辉 张永强 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京气象学院,南京,210044
2. 江苏省宿迁市气象局,223800 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重中之重科技攻关项目!96－90801011，国家自然科学基金!49875019资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文用１９５１－１９９６年资料，研究了我国淮河流域夏季降水的前期大气环流及北半球海平面气压场的异常特征．结果表明，秋季中国南海地区、冬季１月份白令海地区的海平面气压中有预报我国淮河流域夏季雨型的强信号。前者有很长的预时效，并且与ＥＬ Ｎｉｏｎ事件有关。用１９５１－１９９５年４５年资料建立的二因子回归预报模型的复相关系数可达到０．６６。
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| 关 键 词： | 淮河流域 回归模型 预报信号 降水预报 长期预报 |
REGRESSION MODEL FOR LONG RANGE FORECAST OF SUMMER RAINFALL OVER HUAIHA RIVER VALLEY IN CHINA |
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| Cheng Hui,Zhang Yongqiang,Shi Neng.REGRESSION MODEL FOR LONG RANGE FORECAST OF SUMMER RAINFALL OVER HUAIHA RIVER VALLEY IN CHINA[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2000,20(1):37-43. |
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| Authors: | Cheng Hui Zhang Yongqiang Shi Neng |
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| Abstract: | The anomalous characteristics of the atmospheric circulation are analyzed in the preceding autumn and winter months for summer rainfall over Huaihe River valley in China during the period of 1951-1996. The results show that strong signals predicting fol- lowing summer rainfall over Huaihe River valley in China exist in the Sea Level Pressure in January over the region of Bailin sea and South China Sea in autumn. The latter has long pe- riod of validity and correlation with the EL Nino events. The regression model based on 45 years data (1951-1995) with the two parameters has a multiple correlation coefficient of 0. 66. |
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| Keywords: | Huaihe River valley Summer rainfall Regression model Prediction signal |
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