近四十年季度天气趋势预报研究与实践的进展

本文总结了作者近４０年在季度天气趋势预报研究与实践的历程和主要进展。六十年代提出并利用中高纬和低纬前期大气环流特征与夏季江淮流域旱涝趋势的隔季遥联制作预报，８０年代补进一步考虑外在因子影响改进为“前期物理成因综合相似法”：１９６８～８７这２０年长江中下游夏季旱涝趋势预报取得较好成绩。随后的预报实践表明，因全球气候异常增长，预报难度有所增大。１９９５年开始建立一种短期气候系统多变因子的物理一统计预报

SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS OF RESEARCHES AND PRACTICE IN SEASONAL WEATHER TREND FORECASTING THROUGH 40 RECENT YEARS

Present paper summarizes the course and main progress of the author's researches and practice in seasonal weather trend forecasting through 40 recent years.In 1960s,the author suggested and made seasonal predictions by using the seasonal teleconnections between preceding characteristics of atmospheric circulation in extratropical/tropical zones and the summer rainy trend of Yangtze/Huaihe Basins.In early 1980s,this method was improved by an analogous method to consider the conbined imfluences of preceding physical causes,good scores had been obtained in seasonal predictions on summer drought/flooding trend predictions of the mid-lower Yangtze Basins during the 20 years of 1968-1987.Following practice reveals the increasing difficulty of seasonal predictions due to the rising trend of global climate abnormalities.A physical-statistical method for variable factors of short-term climate system has been formed since late 1995 with considerable success during 4 recent years(1996-99) by applying this method to the predictions on summer drought/flooding trends of central-east China.The high skill scores (0.48-0.59)of seasonal predictions of large sample(seasonal predictions of above 4 years with hindcasts of other 5 years:N=103) manifest that this method is worthy of the applications to all regions of China for different seasons and other extratropical regions with weaker oceanic forcing in the Northerm Hemisphere.