气象服务在江苏农业减灾增效中的效用分析

气象为农业服务是气象服务的重要方面,科学定量评估农业气象服务效益是气象在农业减灾增效中更好发挥作用的有效手段。本文以江苏省为例,选取大农业范畴的种植业、蔬菜、茶桑果、林业、牧业、渔业、农林牧渔服务业为研究对象,通过问卷制作和调查,了解不同领域的农业用户群和专家对气象服务的满意度评价。结果表明:2005—2009年的满意度逐年上升,其中2009年满意度高达92.90%;通过改进后的德尔菲评估法,计算发现此5 a的气象服务在江苏农业减灾增效中的效用越来越显著,经济效益也在逐年上升,总效益约为551.32亿元。由此可见,气象服务工作不仅得到了广大农业用户群以及专家的肯定,而且在农业中产生的经济效益也是非常显著。此外,文中还对气象服务经济效益的定量评估方法进行了有益的探讨。

Analysis on meteorological services for disaster reduction and benefits increase in agriculture in Jiangsu province

It is indispensable to scientifically and quantitatively assess benefits of agrometeorological service. Taking Jiangsu province for example,crop farming,vegetable production,tea and mulberry cultivation,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery,and their service industry are chosen as objects of study. The evaluation on satisfaction of meteorological services from agricultural users and experts in different areas was obtained through questionnaires. Results show that the degree of satisfaction had been steadily increasing year by year during 2005 to 2009,the greatest being 92.90% in 2009. Benefits of agricultural meteorological services,which was estimated by a modified Delphi assessment method, were outstanding in 2005-2009 and the total benefits over the five years reached 55.132 billion yuan. The meteorological service therefore is in favor of both farmer users and experts and helps improve in economic efficiency. In addition,methods of quantitatively assessing economic benefits from meteorological service were also under consideration.