高速公路路面温度极值预报模型研究

应用地表热量平衡方程,在太阳短波辐射、大气和地面长波辐射、感热和潜热等参数化方案的基础上,提出一种用于预报高速公路路面温度极值的数值模型.并利用沪宁高速公路梅村站和仙人山站2006年7月8日-12月31日的逐分钟的各要素实测数据对模型的有效性进行验证,结果表明:模型的平均绝对误差为1.32 ℃,预报误差在±3 ℃以内的频率高达85.23%,且对冬季路面温度低于0 ℃时的预报误差基本在-1～0 ℃,可以运用于冬季高速公路路面溜滑的实际预报中.

Study on the numerical prediction model of extreme temperature on speedway-surface

By using road energy balance method, considering the balance among solar short-wave radiation, atmospheric and ground long-wave radiations, latent heat fluxes and sensible heat fluxes, a forecasting model for speedway-surface temperature is established. The per-minute observation data of Meicun station and Xianrenshan station on Hu-Ning speedway from July 8,2006 to December 31, 2006 have been used in the validation of the model, results show that the mean absolute error of the model is 1.32 ℃, the frequency of the forecasting error between -3 ℃ and 3 ℃ is 85.23%, and the forecasting error is between -1 ℃ and 0 ℃ when the speedway-surface temperature is below 0 ℃ in winter, which proves that the model is useful in the prediction of slippery speedway in winter.