| 用多元门限回归模型作区域夏季旱涝预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 徐家良.用多元门限回归模型作区域夏季旱涝预测[J].气象科学,1996,16(4):391-395. |
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| 作者姓名： | 徐家良 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海市气象局!上海，200030 |
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| 摘 要： | 考虑了气候系统中一些变量突变时对预测关系的改变作用，用多元门限回归模型的建模方法建立长江下游地区夏季旱涝趋势预测模型。拟合效果较理想，用１９９４－１９９５年的独立资料检验，预测结果与实况较为接近。
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| 关 键 词： | 旱涝 多元门限回归 回归模型 旱涝预测 |
REGIONAL PREDICTION OF SUMMER FLOOD/DROUGHT WITH MULTIVARIATE THRESHOLD REGRESSION MODEL |
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| Xu Jialiang.REGIONAL PREDICTION OF SUMMER FLOOD/DROUGHT WITH MULTIVARIATE THRESHOLD REGRESSION MODEL[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,1996,16(4):391-395. |
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| Authors: | Xu Jialiang |
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| Abstract: | Based on the fact that the predictor and predictand will change when some variateschange ahruptly in the climatic system, a multivariate threshold regression model for sum-mer flood/drought in the Lower ChangJiang valley is developed. The model is satisfactory.An independent sample of 1994 - 1995 is tested. The test results show .that precipitationprediction is close to the actual precipitation, |
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| Keywords: | flood/drought multivariate threshold regression prediction |
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