山东省极端气温偏态性分布和变化特征

采用山东省1961—2010年夏季日最高气温和冬季日最低气温数据,基于Box-Cox变换,分析了山东省极端高温、极端低温偏态性分布特征与变化趋势。结果显示,极端高温偏态系数具有较为显著的海陆分布特征,呈现由东南向西北左偏相对减弱,且夏季异常高温出现几率有所增加。极端低温偏态指数分布受地形和纬度的双重影响,左偏和右偏的地区接近,各占半数。在气候态,由Ⅰ态经Ⅱ态过渡到Ⅲ态的过程中,山东省大部分地区夏季极端高温偏态指数和冬季极端低温偏态指数均处于不断升高的状态,表明大部分地区夏季出现异常高温的几率处在增加的趋势中,而冬季出现异常低温的几率处在减少的趋势中。

Skewed distribution and evolution of extreme temperature in Shandong province

Based on daily maximum temperatures in summer and minimum temperatures in winter respectively from 1961 to 2010 in Shandong province, skewed distribution characteristics and variation trend of extreme high and low temperatures have been analyzed by Box-Cox transformation. Results show that skewed indexes distributions of extreme high temperature in most areas obeys the rule of increasing from southeast to northwest, revealing that their left-partial levels relatively decline and the occurrence of abnormal high temperature in summer accordingly rises. Due to the effects of terrain and latitude, areas where skewed indexes distribution of extreme low temperature is left-partial are almost equal to right-partial areas. During the transition from the first climate state via the second one to the third one, skewed indexes of extreme high temperature in summer and extreme low temperature in winter in most areas of Shandong province are gradually going up, which indicates a more frequent occurrence of extreme high temperature in summer but a declining occurrence of extreme low temperature in winter.