近40a江苏省夏季旱涝的演变、分型及特征分析

通过1961～2000年江苏省13个站点夏季降水量场时间序列的EOF分析，探讨江苏省夏季旱涝异常的演变特征，根据第一、二特征向量分型，可将江苏省旱涝分成旱型、涝型、南旱北涝和南涝北旱四种主要空间型。并在此基础上利用合成分析，对其前期及同期500hPa、100hPa高度距平场的特征进行分析，发现各型前期和同期有不同的大气环流特征，得到了一些对本地夏季降水量有预测意义的结果。

VARIATION, STRUCTURE DEVISION AND FEATURES ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION ANOMALY WITHIN THE PAST 40 SUMMERS IN JIANGSU

Based on the EOF analysis of summer precipitation of 13 stations in Jiangsu province from 1961 to 2000, variation features of summer precipitation anomaly were studied. According to the first two eigenvectors, we divided all the cases into four patterns: drought, waterlogged, south-drought meanwhile north-waterlogged and south-waterlogged meanwhile north-drought. Furthermore, using compound analysis, we analyzed 500 hPa and 100 hPa height departure and found that different patterns had different circulation feathers in the same and preceding months. Some useful results for the summer precipitation prediction in the local region were obtained.