Modulation of decadal ENSO-like variation by effective solar radiation |
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| Institution: | 1. Earth System Modeling Center, Climate Dynamics Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China;2. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China;3. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China;4. Joint Center for Global Change Studies (JCGCS), Beijing 100875, China;5. Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment of Ministry of Education, School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China;1. Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, LAM (Laboratoire d’Astrophysique de Marseille), UMR 7326, 13388, Marseille, France;2. Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA;1. International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA;2. Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA;3. Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA;1. Istat – Istituto Nazionale di Statistica, via Balbo 16, 00184 Roma, Italy;2. Dip. S.B.A.I., “La Sapienza” Università di Roma, via Scarpa 16, 00161 Roma, Italy;3. Dip. Matematica e Informatica, Università degli Studi di Perugia, via Vanvitelli 1, 06123 Perugia, Italy;1. Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, United States;2. Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, United States;1. Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xi''an Jiaotong University, China;2. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Minnesota, USA;3. Department of Geological Sciences, Ohio University, USA;4. Department of Earth Science, California State University Dominguez Hills, USA;5. Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA;6. State Key Laboratory of Marine Geology, Tongji University, China;7. Bureau of Economic Geology, University of Texas at Austin, USA |
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| Abstract: | Prediction of the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the coming decades is a challenge as the SST anomaly changes over time due to natural and anthropogenic climate forcing. The climate changes in the mid-1970s and late-1990s were related to the decadal Pacific SST variability. The changes in the mid-1970s were associated with the positive phase of decadal El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like SST variation, and the changes in the late-1990s were related to its negative phase. However, it is not clear whether this decadal SST variability is related to any external forcing. Here, we show that the effective solar radiation (ESR), which includes the net solar radiation and the effects of volcanic eruption, has modulated this decadal ENSO-like oscillation. The eastern Pacific warming (cooling) associated with this decadal ENSO-like oscillation over the past 139 years is significantly related to weak (strong) ESR. The weak ESR with strong volcanic eruption is found to strengthen the El Niño, resulting in an El Niño-like SST anomaly on the decadal time scale. The strong eruptions of the El Chicho’n (1982) and Pinatubo (1991) volcanoes reduced the ESR during the 1980s and 1990s, respectively. The radiation reduction weakened the Walker circulation due to the “ocean thermostat” mechanism that generates eastern Pacific warming associated with a decadal El Niño-like SST anomaly. This mechanism has been confirmed by the millennium run of ECHO-G model, in which the positive eastward gradient of SST over the equatorial Pacific was simulated under the weak ESR forcing on the decadal time scale. We now experience a reversal of the trend in the ESR. The strong solar radiation and lack of strong volcanic eruptions over the past 15 years have resulted in strong ESR, which should enhance the Walker circulation, leading to a La Niña-like SST anomaly. |
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| Keywords: | Decadal ENSO Effective solar radiation Volcanic eruption |
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