GRAPES模式在淮河流域面雨量预报中的应用

利用我国新一代数值预报模式GRAPES输出的降水预报，制作了2005年7—9月淮河流域的面雨量预报，并对其与预报员制作的面雨量预报和面雨量实况进行了对比分析。期间7月4—11日、7月27日-8月4日淮河流域分别出现了两段集中强降水时间，给各地造成了严重的洪涝损失，因此针对这两次强降水过程着重进行了分析和讨论，同时进一步利用安徽省高密度自动雨量站资料对流域面雨量的估测和预报进行了初步研究。结果表明：用GRAPES模式产品直接制作的淮河流域面雨量预报产品在实际工作中具有较高的参考价值；高密度雨量站资料的使用有利于提高面雨量实况估测的精度，更客观地检验面雨量预报产品。

Application of GRAPES Model to Area-rainfall Forecast in the Huaihe River Basin

The Huaihe River Basin area-rainfall forecast, produced by using the output precipitation forecast of the new generation NWP model--GRAPES, is introduced. The testification with the observation and forecast of forecaster is also made. The comparison analysis between the two methods and discussions is focused on two periods when the heavy rainfall led to severe floods in the Huaihe River Basin. One of the periods is from 4 to 11 July 2005, the other from 27 July to 4 August, 2005. Furthermore, the research on the verification with the observation from rain ganges is also described. The results show that the GRAPES output precipitation forecast is suitable and efficient for making the basin area-rainfall forecast. And by using the high resolution rain ganges data, it is propitious to improve the precision of assessing the basin area-rainfall.