青岛气旋类暴雨预报方法

使用天气动力学和统计学相结合的方法，以地面影响系统为依据、700hPa西南急流为条件对1983－1999年6－8月青岛地区40次暴雨进行了分型，划分为气旋、台风和冷锋三类。以气旋类暴雨为例，根据预报经验，选取相应的预报因子，建立0、1权重回归方程，用以预报青岛地区6－8月未来24小时的暴雨。气旋类方程准确率为78.0%。用此方法对2000年6－8月进行试报，效果较满意。

Rainstorms of Cyclone Forecast Method in Qingdao City

Based on the basic conditions of surface influence system and of the southwest jet at 700hPa,40 rainstorms in June Augest from 1983 to 1999 in Qingdao City are classified into three patterns with the method of the synoptic dynamics and statistics:cyclone,typhoon and cold front.According to the prediction experience,a 0,1 weight equation is obtained to forecast the rainstorm at Qingdao City in summer.For an example,the accuracy of cyclonic rainstorm is 46/59(78 9%).