| 三峡区间面雨量预报方法及其试验效果 |
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| 引用本文： | 熊秋芬,王丽,郑启松,王仁乔,柯怡明,何志学.三峡区间面雨量预报方法及其试验效果[J].气象,2000,26(11):19-23. |
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| 作者姓名： | 熊秋芬 王丽 郑启松 王仁乔 柯怡明 何志学 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 武汉中心气象台,武汉,430074
2. 湖北省气象局 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了用于制作三峡区间面雨量预报的各种预报方法，分析了天气学方法、数值预报方法及以数值预报产品为基础的人工神经网络方法在１９９９年汛期的试验效果，结果表明：人工神经网络方法及ＭＡＰＳ数值预报方法预报效果较好。并提出了对几种面雨量预报方法的改进措施。
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| 关 键 词： | 面雨量 预报方法 数值预报 天气学模型 三峡区间 |
The Forecast Methods of Area Rainfall in the Sanxia Region and Experimental Impact Analyses |
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| Xiong Qiufen,Wang Li,Zheng Qisong,Wang Renqiao,Ke Yiming,He Zhixue.The Forecast Methods of Area Rainfall in the Sanxia Region and Experimental Impact Analyses[J].Meteorological Monthly,2000,26(11):19-23. |
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| Authors: | Xiong Qiufen Wang Li Zheng Qisong Wang Renqiao Ke Yiming He Zhixue |
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| Abstract: | Four kinds of approaches were introduced.They are of synoptic pattern,MAPS numerical model,artificial neural network and Japanese numerical model for forecasting area rainfall in the Sanxia region and analyses impact of the experiment during the summer in 1999.Results show that the forecasting effects are better for artificial neural network and MAPS numerical model.Finally improving measures are given for the first three kinds of approaches. |
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| Keywords: | area rainfall forecast approach numerical model forecasting artificial neural network synoptic pattern |
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