铁岭市近45年气候变化特征分析

利用线性倾向率、滑动平均等方法，对铁岭市1960--2004年间4个气象观测站的月平均气温、降水量、平均最高气温、平均最低气温以及初终霜、无霜期、积温、透雨等资料进行分析，结果发现铁岭市近45年气候变化特点为温度呈上升、降水略减少的趋势，特别是近15年，气温增暖幅度加大，降水春夏两季减少明显；但各季增温幅度差异较大，对气候变暖贡献最大的是冬季，平均最低气温升温幅度明显高于平均最高气温，气温日较差变小；初霜拖后、终霜提前及无霜期延长，积温明显增多，透雨偏晚频率增大，极端气候事件出现的几率增大。

Climatic Change Features of Tieling, Liaoning Province in Recent 45 Years

The monthly mean temperature, precipitation, mean maximum and minimum temperature, first/latest frost, frost-free season, accumulated temperature and soaking rain in four weather stations of Tieling during 1960--2004 are analyzed by using of linear trend analysis and moving mean methods. The results show that the temperature has an obvious warm tendency and the precipitation has a decrease tendency in Tieling during recent 45 years. Specifically, in recent 15 years, the rising range of temperature increases, and precipitation reduces obviously in spring and summer. There is also an evident difference in the changes in four seasons. The warm trend is evident in winter, the rising range of the mean minimum temperature is more evident than the mean maximum temperature, and the daily range of temperature decreases. The first frost is delayed, the latest frost is ahead, as a result, the frost-free period prolongs, and the accumulated temperature obviously increases, the late soaking rain and the extreme climate events occur frequently.