Rossby波列传播效应在梅汛期强降雨中期预报中的应用研究

根据1981-2010年30年梅汛期(6-7月)46个代表站的逐日实测降雨量和NCEP再分析资料,统计归纳出强降雨天气气候特征;通过对大量历史个例的总结,对影响江淮流域强降雨的500hPa主要环流特征和影响系统、850hPa风场等分布特征进行了综合分析,提出了强降雨的概念模型和中期预报着眼点。针对近30年来出现的10次长持续性强降雨天气过程,进行了Rossby波的下游效应分析,得出Rossby波列自西向东明显传播将有利于江淮流域出现持续性强降雨天气过程。Rossby波能量的下游效应可为中期预报提供新的思路。

An Applied Research About Spread Effects of Rossby Wave in Medium Range Forecast on Heavy Rain During Meiyu Flood Period

This paper primarily discusses the synoptic and climatic characters in heavy rain during Meiyu flood period (June-July) based on the thirty year (1981-2010) observational data at 46 stations and the reanalysis dataset from 1981 to 2010. Main circulation characters and impacting systems of heavy rain in Jiang Huai Basin at 500 hPa and wind distribution characters at 850 hPa are summarized by integratively analyzing abundant historical examples. A conceptual model of heavy rain and study respects of medium range forecast are put forward. Ten durative heavy rain weather processes in the last thirty years are discussed, and the results show that the easterly propagation of Rossby wave is in favor of occurrence of the durative heavy rain weather processes in Jiang Huai Basin. The downstream development of Rossby wave provides some new ideas for medium range forecast.