| 热带气旋路径客观综合集成预报方法的研制 |
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| 引用本文： | 谢玲娟.热带气旋路径客观综合集成预报方法的研制[J].气象,1995,21(8):30-33. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谢玲娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 广州热带海洋气象研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 本文为85-906-05-04-02 |
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| 摘 要： | 在正确评估我国现有发报的７种客观预报方法性能的基础上，分别对西北太平洋，东海，南海３个责任海区，采用典型相关，条件概率组合，新回归系数估计法等多种统计模型，建立包括数值预报产品在内的热带气旋路径的综合集成预报方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋 路径 集成预报 数值预报产品 |
An Objective Integrated Prediction Model of Tropical Cyclone Track |
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| Xie Lingjuan.An Objective Integrated Prediction Model of Tropical Cyclone Track[J].Meteorological Monthly,1995,21(8):30-33. |
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| Authors: | Xie Lingjuan |
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| Abstract: | Following correct assessment of seven objective prediction methods used in China,employing a number of statistic models such as the typical correlation,conditional combination of probability and updated method for estimating regressive coefficients,a package of composite procedures for the tropical cyclone track forecasting (including NWP product) are formulated for areas in the northwestern pacific,East China Sea and South China Sea. |
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| Keywords: | tracks of tropical cyclone NWP product integrated prediction modle |
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