中国夏季旱涝气候预测相似模型

在廖荃荪等的中国3类雨型的基础上,把阻高与副高的配置与中国夏季旱涝分布特点结合起来,把中国夏季旱涝分布划分为8种雨带类型,把与这8种雨带类型相对应的1月份北半球500 hPa月平均环流划分为8种环流型,计算预报年1月500 hPa月平均环流型与这8种环流型的相关系数,选相关系数最大者所对应的雨型为当年预测结果。2007和2008年试预测比较成功。

The Precipitation Similarity Model of Summer Drought/Flood in China

The summer rain patterns in China were further divided into eight types on the basis of the three patterns divided by Liao Quansun et al.The situations of blocking high and subtropical high were combined together with the summer rain of China.Correspondingly,the circulation of 500 hPa was also divided into eight patterns.The correlation coefficients of the January circulation of forecast year with these eight patterns were calculated.The maximum correlation would be selected to be the forecast of that year....