2015年5月大气环流和天气分析

对2015年3—5月T639、ECMWF（文中简称EC）及日本数值模式中期预报产品进行了检验和对比。结果表明：三个模式对亚洲中高纬地区大尺度环流和850 hPa温度的演变和调整均具有较好的预报性能，EC模式对西风指数、850 hPa温度转折过程和变化幅度的预报略优于其他两个模式。对2015年3月31日至4月1日北方地区强沙尘暴天气过程的主要影响天气系统，三个模式预报能力相当，121 h时效都较好地预报出了地面冷高压，但强度和范围与实况有一定偏差。

Analysis of the June 2015 Atmospheric Circulation and Weather

The performances of medium range forecasts are verified and compared for T639, ECMWF (EC) and Japan models from March to May 2015. The results show that the three models have good performance on predicting the large scale circulation and 850 hPa temperature evolution and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitude areas. EC shows a better performance on westerly index and 850 hPa temperature than the other two models. Taking the sandstorm process from 31 March to 1 April as a case, it is found that all the three models have predicted the intensity and affected range of the major weather for sandstorm, but compared with observations some biases also exist.