| 1991年江淮流域梅雨结束预报的分析与讨论 |
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| 引用本文： | 任泽君.1991年江淮流域梅雨结束预报的分析与讨论[J].气象,1997,23(8):29-33. |
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| 作者姓名： | 任泽君 |
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| 作者单位： | 中央气象台 |
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| 摘 要： | １９９１年江淮梅雨结束，在预报上具有相当难度。由于ＥＣＭＷＦ数值预报出现重大偏差，曾一度造成业务预报的重大分歧，增加了预报决策的困难。作者客观地反映当时预报的实况，其目的在于剖析预报分歧中的症结，并由此提出预报员的经验可以弥补单一预报工具的不足，修正数值预报产品的误差，从而提高预报准确率。
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| 关 键 词： | 江淮梅雨 数值预报产品 预报经验 |
Analysis and Discussion of the Meiyu Conclusion Prediction over Jiang Huai Valley in 1991 |
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| Tang Zidong,Zheng Shifang,Xi Xiufen.Analysis and Discussion of the Meiyu Conclusion Prediction over Jiang Huai Valley in 1991[J].Meteorological Monthly,1997,23(8):29-33. |
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| Authors: | Tang Zidong Zheng Shifang Xi Xiufen |
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| Abstract: | The correlation coefficient of Northern Hemisphere 500hPa,100hPa and North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature with spring rainfall in Shandong province are calculated,the predictors with correlation significance level equaled to 0 05 are selected.A forecast model of spring rainfall in Shandong province is established by BP artificial neural network,and used to vocational work.The results show that forecasts of BP artificial neural network are good. |
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| Keywords: | atificial neural network back propagation spring rainfall long term forecast |
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