城市化对兰州气温变化影响的定量分析

利用兰州市70年来的气温记录，采用城郊对比的方法定量的研究了城市化对兰州气温的影响。利用主成分分析的方法提取气温变化的主要控制因子——低温控制因子、高温控制因子。利用两个控制因子的城郊对比，定量的揭示城市化对城市气温变化的影响。另外任何区域气候变化不仅有城市化等人为因素的影响，而且带有大范围的气候背景的影响，所以在讨论城市发展对气温的影响之前，首先通过滑动t-检验研究了兰州市气温变化的大的趋势，得出兰州城市气温的11年变化周期，对于这一现象初步认为这与太阳的黑子活动的周期性有关。

Urbanization Effect on Air Temperature Change in Lanzhou City for Recent 60 Years

The influence to the city climate is researched quantitatively through the meteorological log in recent 70 years by the method of comparison between the urban and the suburban's. And the principle components (high, low temperature components) of air temperature are extracted by the method of the principle component analysis. The influence of the urbanization to the city air temperature in Lanzhou is analyzed quantitatively. Certainly, the cause of the air temperature change is not only by the influence of human but also by the change of the more large-scale climatic background. So, before analyzing the change of the city climate, the trend of the large-scale area climate by T-test is discussed and the variation of the region climate has the characteristic of 11-years cycle is obtained.