黄河凌汛及其预报研究

分析了黄河内蒙古段凌汛的特点及凌灾的成因，指出黄河凌险与黄河中上游的降水状况、冬季结冰状况及开春后的融冰速度有密切关系。依据成灾物理因素，给出了判定河套凌险状况的凌险指数，据此可对黄河凌险进行预警。确定了黄河封河的临界温度指标，得出了制作黄河开河日预报的技术方法。

Forecasting Research on Ice Run of the Yellow River

By the analysis of the characteristics of ice run and causes of ice run disaster in the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River, it points out that the precipitation status of the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River, the freezing status in winter and the melting speed in spring have a close relation with the ice run disaster.Based on the innate laws of ice run disaster,the ice run disaster index is obtained.Meanwhile,it points out the critical temperature index of freezing of the Yellow River and the way of forcasting the date of breakup of the ice in the Yellow River.