MM5模式输出对流参数的效果检验

利用MM5的输出资料计算各种强对流参数和物理量，结合北京地区20个雷暴个例对其使用效果作了相关检验。结果表明模式输出参数能较好地反映雷暴和非雷暴日的区别，较实况探空而言，模式输出不仅可以从参数的大小，而且可以从参数的变化趋势来来判断雷暴的发生；模式输出参数同时能较准确地预报雷暴发生的时间和落区；和实况探空的对比以及不同预报时效的对比表明，模式和实况及业务需求还存在差距，模式输出还有待进一步提高。

Forecasting Effect Test of Convective Parameters Output by MM5 Model

The forecasting effect of convective parameters output by MM5 model is tested with the data of 20 thunderstorm cases. The results show that the model output convective parameters can reflect the difference between the storm and no storm days and can forecast the happening time and area of the storm. The storm can be judged not only through parameter values but also through the changing tendency of convective parameters. At the same time, the model output still need to be improved because the difference is obvious compared to observation data and the different time range outputs is so varied.