2010年3—5月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

为更好地应用T639模式中期预报产品,对2010年3—5月T639模式96小时预报产品进行了天气学检验,并与ECMWF、日本模式进行了对比分析。结果表明:三种模式均对亚洲中高纬环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能。综合来看,ECMWF模式对各系统及要素的预报最接近实况;日本模式和T639模式次之。另外,选取了2010年3月19—22日的沙尘天气个例进行分析,发现日本模式对于引发此次沙尘天气的地面强风的中期预报指示意义最好。

Performance Verification of the March to May 2010 Medium-Range Forecasting by T639, ECMWF and Japan Models

In order to improve the ability to use the products of T639, the synoptic verification on its medium range forecasting in 2010 spring is made in comparison with the NWP of ECMWF and Japan models. The results show that the three models have good performances in the aspect of predicting the large scale circulation evolution and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitude areas. As a whole, the ECMWF model is the best in forecasting most weather systems compared with the T639 and Japan models. Taking the sandstorm process during the period of 19-22 March as a case, it is found that Japan model is more effective than the other two models in the medium range forecasting of strong surface wind, which causes this sand and dust weather process.