| 极限产量权重法分段预报盐城市大、小麦产量 |
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| 引用本文： | 李荣生,袁玉付.极限产量权重法分段预报盐城市大、小麦产量[J].气象,1996,22(5):55-57. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李荣生 袁玉付 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏省盐城市气象局!224001(李荣生)，盐城市郊区农业局(袁玉付) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据盐城市的大、小麦产量，农技措施和气象资料，采用极限产量权重法组建大，小麦产量（ｙ）的预报模式：ｙ＝ｙｍ－ｙ农－ｙ灾－ｙ气或改写为：ｙ＝ｙｍ（１－（∑ａｉ＋∑Ｂｊ＋∑Ｃｎ））对盐城市大、小麦产量进行分段预报，经多年试报，结果与实产的相以误差均在５％以内。
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| 关 键 词： | 极限产量 权重法 产量 小麦 大麦 |
Forecasting the Production of Barley and Wheat by Stages Using the Weighting Method of Limit Production |
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| Li Rongsheng,Yuan Yufu.Forecasting the Production of Barley and Wheat by Stages Using the Weighting Method of Limit Production[J].Meteorological Monthly,1996,22(5):55-57. |
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| Authors: | Li Rongsheng Yuan Yufu |
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| Abstract: | The model of forcasting the production of wheat and barley by the weighting method of Limit production is developed based on the production of barley and wheat,agricultural technology and weather data. The model is:It is adopted to forecast the production of barley and wheat in the Yancheng area. Experimental forecasts in the past suggest that the error of the model is less than 5%. |
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| Keywords: | limit production weighting method production of barley and wheat |
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