以用户为导向的交互式预报系统及应用研究

基于近年来涌现的有关新一代气象预报系统发展的认识，本文提出用户导向的交互式预报系统的概念模型。新系统强调在用户信息分析的基础上，发展从用户出发再回到用户不断自我改善的预报流程。系统组成的关键模块包括：用户端风险决策动态需求分析模块、物理预测模块、用户目标量的降尺度模块，用户端专业耦合模块及用户风险决策模块。文中阐述了系统中各模块间的联系、用户端信息在系统中的反馈作用以及具体的“交互式”方式。以临沂地区水文用户为例，以引发洪涝的降水事件为预报对象，利用TIGGE全球超集合预报，初步构建了一个临沂水文用户导向的可能致洪降水交互式预报系统。这个具备迭代式自我完善功能的新型预报系统包含了汛期随时变化的用户决策信息、由前期影响雨量和当前水文条件决定的可变致洪降水阈值以及一个动态的用户端预报水平和不确定性评估模块。初步结果表明，结合用户端信息的预报优于未考虑用户信息的预报结果，从而更直接地帮助用户进行防汛决策。个例研究也为发展更完整的用户导向预报系统提供了参考。

Developing a User Oriented Interactive Forecast System

A framework of dynamic user oriented interactive forecast system is proposed. The new generation forecast system contains an initial user end module for configuring the dynamic forecast target, the physical predictive, downscaling components, user end professional models, and a user oriented assessing module in association with decision making at the user end. A case study involving application of current global ensemble forecasts (TIGGE) of rainfall for hydrological users in Linyi, a region rich in rivers and reservoirs in eastern China, is conducted in order to highlight interactive involvement of the user end information during forecast process. An iteratively self improving forecast system, involving changing decision making information throughout a flood season, a changing threshold for flood leading rainfall depending on previous weather and concurrent hydrological conditions, and a dynamic user oriented assessing process of concurrent skill and uncertainty of the prediction, is built up. It is demonstrated how a forecast of flood leading rainfall leads to a better warning signal for the user with interactive involvement of the user end than without.