湖南猛洞河漂流气候舒适度评价及预报方程的建立

文章选取湖南省永顺县气象站1971-2000年各月的平均气温、相对湿度和风速资料，作为评价气候环境对漂流旅游舒适度的影响因子，对湖南省内著名的漂流景点、全国仅有的两条四星级漂流线路之一的猛洞河进行气候舒适度的模糊综合评判，并根据该评判模式建立了猛洞河漂流气象条件舒适度的预报方程。结果表明：(1)每年3-11月均可进行漂流旅游，其中气候条件较为舒适的时间为每年的5-9月，最为适宜的时间是6-8月，其中7-8月为漂流的旺季。(2)猛洞河气候舒适度判定结果与漂流景区的客流量相关程度达到0.859，表明气象因子是影响猛洞河漂流客流量的最主要因素。(3)在模糊综合评判的基础上，文章建立了猛洞河漂流每日气象条件舒适度预报方程，在实际应用中能为漂流游客提供指导。

Evaluation of the Climatic Comfortableness and Establishment of Its Forecast Equations for Mengdong River Driftage in Hunan Province

The paper uses the data of average air temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity from Yongshun Meteorological Station in every month from 1971 to 2000 as the factors of driftage comfortableness to evaluate the climate environment for Mengdong River tourism spots in Hunan which is a four star route as one of the only two driftage routes all over the country by means of fuzzy mathematics, and based on the model the forecast equations are set up. The results showed: (1) It is suitable for driftage from March to November in every year. The climate conditions are relatively comfortable from May to September, the most comfortable time is from June to August. July and August are the peak season for driftage. (2) The correlation degree is 0.859 between the judgment result of climate comfortableness and tourist traffic, showing that meteorological factors are the most important factors that affected tourist traffic. (3) Based on fuzzy evaluation the forecast equations were established for the comfortable level of meteorological conditions in the paper. In practice, it can provide guidance for the tourists drifting.